Siena Poll: Harris Boosts Democrats in New York

 Siena Poll: Harris Strengthens Democrats in New York


Introduction

With presidential polling numbers in New York tightening up in recent weeks, Vice President Kamala Harris gave Democrats a much-needed boost. According to the most recent Siena College Research Institute poll, Harris enjoys a modest lead over former President Donald Trump, and with her atop the Democratic ticket, the party will find some breathing room in one of the nation's largest blue strongholds.

Harris vs. Trump: Poll Results

The Siena poll released Tuesday morning finds Harris sporting a 14-point lead over Trump among likely voters, 53% to 39%. Though narrower than previous Democratic leads in the state, it's a significant improvement over President Joe Biden's slimmer leads of 8 to 10 points in monthly Siena polls conducted since last fall.

Comparative Favorability

Harris' favorability stands at 53 percent, while 43 percent view her negatively. This is far improved from Biden's June favorability rating of 42 percent positive and 53 percent negative. Trump's numbers have held steady, as his favorability rating clocks in at 39 percent in the latest poll.

Effect on Democratic Voters

Those improved polling numbers for Harris seem to be galvanizing Democratic voters who were previously undecided or independent third-party voters. As Steve Greenberg of Siena put it, "Those voters are now coming home." That shift is key to down-ballot Democrats who worried about low turnout and the possibility of a competitive New York.

Historically, Democratic candidates have done a bit better in New York's November elections than Siena's summer projections. This record shows that Harris's current 14-point lead might translate into a bigger gap by election day.

Hypothetical Six-Way Race

In a hypothetical six-way race, Harris' lead narrows to 12 points. The New York ballot is likely to include at least three candidates. One of those is Robert Kennedy, who's still dealing with legal efforts to get him off the ballot. That dynamic shows just how much the final lineup can change the outcome of the election drastically.

Other Political Figures in New York

Gov. Kathy Hochul

The favorability rating for Governor Kathy Hochul remains poor: only 39% of the respondents view her favorably, while 50% view her unfavorably. This is a slight drop from 38-49 in June, foreshadowing further setbacks for her administration.

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

On the other hand, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand retains a very positive image, with a 40-33 favorability rating that hasn't changed much over the past year. In a head-to-head poll, Gillibrand leads her Republican challenger, Mike Sapraicone, 56-33.

State-Level Issues

Equal Rights Amendment

A strong majority of New Yorkers is on board with the state-level Equal Rights Amendment that will appear on November's ballot. Expanding protections against discrimination to include ethnicity, disability, sex, sexual orientation and gender expression would be enshrined, along with protection of abortion rights by 68-23 margin.

Congestion Pricing and Smartphone Ban

Opinions of Gov. Hochul's policies run a bit of a gamut. On the pause of Manhattan's congestion pricing system indefinitely, 59% oppose saying it should be scrapped altogether. On banning smartphones in classrooms, a policy Hochul has advocated for in recent months, 60-32, there is a majority.

Methodology

With a margin of error of 4 points, the Siena poll surveyed 1,199 likely voters, whereas other polls this year used registered voters. Likely voters are a shift from the usual methodology of other polls taken this year to be more accurate to the perception of the mood of the electorate with the approaching election.

Conclusion

The lead that Vice President Kamala Harris holds in the Siena poll creates a strategic advantage for New York Democrats by lessening some of the anxiety felt about what was supposed to be a highly contested race in the traditionally blue state. Improving favorability numbers for Harris, and undecided voters going back to the Democratic base, seem to set up the party much better for the election ahead. However, it still remains very dynamic, with possible shifts as other candidates and issues come into play.

Location: New York, NY, USA

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